Is the US trying to pressure China with Hormuz blockade?
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
"The US naval blockade of Iranian ports is not a tactic to force China to pressure Iran into a peace deal, according to analysts.
Rather, the US aimed to end the war through showing its maritime supremacy over the world’s most vital energy chokepoint, they argued. Washington began to enforce the blockade on Monday, drawing threats of retaliation from Tehran.
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Independent political analyst Guy Burton argued that even if Washington was trying to force China’s hand, this may overestimate Beijing’s actual leverage over Tehran.
“In reality that influence is limited. Iran values its relationship with China but remains cautious about becoming overly dependent … China is not in a position to compel Tehran to change course,” Burton noted.
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Beijing has repeatedly denied allegations it buys smuggled oil and says bilateral trade is conducted within the framework of international law.
Burton also agreed that China would avoid any entanglement with the US military, especially over Iran. He particularly highlighted the recent passage of a US-sanctioned Chinese tanker through the Strait of Hormuz without interference, which suggested that “neither side is currently seeking direct confrontation”.
“Escalating against Chinese shipping would undermine any US effort to draw Beijing into a more cooperative or aligned position.”
At least three vessels, including a Chinese tanker, entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on the first full day of the US blockade, according to Reuters.
Burton added that Trump had little consistency in his statements, offering conflicting justifications and explanations.
“He looks to be flailing around, trying to find some way of getting Iran to submit, but struggling to do so. That would appear to be the thinking over his current blockade – which if you recall, comes days, if not a week after he suggested that both the US and Iran might manage the Strait of Hormuz.”
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