Iran nuclear deal risks collapse over European demand for talks, inspection

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

The 2015 deal under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear programme is on the verge of collapse after its three European signatories last week threatened to reinstate United Nations sanctions if Tehran did not heed Western demands.

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According to Guy Burton, author of the book China and Middle East Conflicts, the threatened snapback of European sanctions is “a strong possibility” because the original Security Council resolution that tied sanctions relief to Iran’s nuclear compliance is due to expire in less than two months from now.

“If it lapses, the UN sanctions regime effectively evaporates. In that sense, the E3’s move towards snapback can be seen less as closing the book on diplomacy and more as trying to extend its shelf life – maintaining leverage over Tehran,” said Burton, an independent analyst who has taught international relations at universities in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and the Palestinian territories.

“The Europeans are not a sufficient condition for any agreement with Iran,” he said. “The decisive actor is the US.”

Burton saw the E3’s ultimatum as an attempt to avoid being sidelined if the US and Iran were to resume bilateral nuclear negotiations, similar to how the EU had wielded little influence over talks to end the war in Ukraine because of the dominance of Washington and Moscow.

“The same logic applies here: if the US and Iran choose to talk directly, European influence is diminished,” Burton told This Week in Asia.

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Burton said the US approach towards Iran had been erratic, especially under Trump, who unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018.

Trump’s “idiosyncratic and often capricious decision-making” has produced contradictions, including the air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June, followed by tentative offers of civilian nuclear cooperation in July.

“Right now, neither Washington nor Tehran looks eager for direct engagement, but I wouldn’t rule it out,” Burton said. “As past episodes show, positions can shift abruptly.”

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